The 2025 Oscar Race Takes Shape
Reading between the lines of the ballot
By now you’ve likely seen the 98th Academy Award nominations, but if you need a refresher, you can view all the nominees here: https://www.oscars.org/oscars/ceremonies/2026
Before we get into my analysis of this year’s nominees, I want to flag a few things.
First — not Oscar related — but I have to highlight David Ehrlich’s Top 25 films of 2025. Ehrlich is a film critic for IndieWire, and every year he assembles a superbly edited compilation of his top films. I mark the date on my calendar and eagerly await this annual ritual, which he is generous enough to share publicly, and I’d encourage you all to watch as well. While I don’t always agree with him, Ehrlich is a sharp and deeply thoughtful critic who consistently pushes me to reconsider films and appreciate dimensions I may have otherwise overlooked. If you can, I’d encourage you to watch his video and donate to his fundraiser for the Palestine Children’s Relief Fund.
Second, a brief primer on who the Academy voters actually are. Voters include over 10,000 industry professionals. These Academy members vote in a number of categories; some are aligned with the industry branch they belong to, while others are open to all members (such as Best Picture). The Academy Awards voting process occurs in two rounds — first to determine nominees, and then again to select the final winners. The nomination round is conducted via ranked-choice ballot, while the final round is a simple plurality vote (except for Best Picture, which also uses ranked-choice). This matters for a few reasons. First, during the nomination phase, you can begin to see which films have genuine momentum and which may have narrowly missed the threshold required for nomination. Second, the Best Picture lineup of ten nominees often closely overlaps with the five Best Director nominees. It’s not unreasonable to assume that the Best Picture nominees lacking a corresponding Best Director citation face a steeper uphill battle. That said, because Best Picture is determined via ranked-choice voting, we have seen instances where it diverges from Best Director, ultimately rewarding consensus rather than sheer intensity of support.
Third, hundreds of films were released in 2025, and 317 were deemed “eligible” by the Academy, with countless more released independently or internationally. Across 24 categories (including Best Casting, the newest addition), fewer than 50 films are represented. I mention this to underscore that while the Academy Awards are undeniably a #bigdeal, some of the most compelling and adventurous creative work of the year is routinely overlooked by Academy voters. These films often cannot compete with the costly and highly orchestrated campaigns required to secure nominations. With an increasingly international voting body, we are seeing greater representation of foreign films, but independent cinema is still frequently sidelined — let alone micro-budget and experimental work that often drives the medium forward. In fact, many of my Top Films of 2025 are nowhere to be found among these nominees.
With that — here are my initial impressions:
Sinners has an enormous showing, securing a record-breaking 16 nominations (and it still holds that distinction even if we remove the newly introduced Casting category). This reflects broad, cross-branch support within the Academy. While I personally did not connect with Sinners (I know, I know), I remain genuinely excited to see how it performs on Oscar night. It’s an original IP and a boldly multi-genre film that debuted as early as April 2025. As usual, most nominees skew toward Fall and Winter releases, so it’s refreshing to see a film from earlier in the year embraced in this way (a pattern reminiscent of Everything Everywhere All At Once, which also premiered nearly a year before its Oscar haul).
If Sinners currently holds the frontrunner position, One Battle After Another is close behind with 13 nominations. Paul Thomas Anderson continues to enjoy deep institutional support and remains one of the most frequently nominated filmmakers yet to win an Oscar. There are, however, minor signs of vulnerability — most notably its absence from Best Actress. Of course, this is an exceptionally competitive category, and I’d struggle to make a compelling case for Chase Infiniti’s inclusion. Still, my money remains on OBAA dominating the major awards, with Sinners likely prevailing in several of the technical categories.
Things become murkier when assessing the next strongest contender, but my instinct — somewhat surprisingly — points to Sentimental Value. Joachim Trier’s film significantly overperformed, earning nominations for Best Picture, Best International Film, Best Actress, and two Best Supporting Actress slots. I wouldn’t be shocked to see Sentimental Value walk away with multiple wins, though I do worry that the dual Supporting Actress nominations for Elle Fanning and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas may split the vote, opening the door for either Amy Madigan (Weapons) or Teyana Taylor (OBAA).
This marks the inaugural year for Best Casting, making it a particularly intriguing category to examine. As with any new award, it will take time to understand how Academy voters interpret and prioritize it. Most notable to me is that Sentimental Value, despite earning four acting nominations, failed to secure a Casting nod. One might assume a natural overlap between the two (as seen with Sinners and OBAA), so I’m curious whether this award ultimately goes to a film outside the two dominant contenders.
One trend I’m pleased to see is a clearer delineation between lead and supporting performances. In recent years, studios have increasingly gamed the system, positioning actors in whichever category appears most winnable. This was particularly glaring last year, when Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) and Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Perez) both won Supporting Oscars despite being unmistakably the leads of their respective films. There may be a slight overcorrection this year, but it’s one I welcome.
You’ll likely hear two nominations cited as the most surprising: F1 in Best Picture and Kate Hudson for Best Actress. Neither strikes me as especially shocking. F1 was a commercial success, a technical showcase, and marks Joseph Kosinski’s second consecutive Best Picture nominee (following Top Gun: Maverick). Given the expanded field of ten, this feels like a fairly predictable — if somewhat uninspired — inclusion. As for Hudson, it’s worth noting that Song Sung Blue is the highest-grossing film represented in the Best Actress category, nearly doubling the box office of its closest competitor. I haven’t seen the film myself, and I would have preferred to see Amanda Seyfried recognized here, but my suspicion is that Hudson didn’t displace her — rather, that some of the other nominees are more vulnerable than they appear.
In terms of disappointments, I’m personally disheartened to see The Testament of Ann Lee and Amanda Seyfried entirely shut out. I place the blame squarely on Searchlight Pictures, whose mishandling of the release effectively extinguished its awards prospects. This is, without question, the strongest lead performance of the year, making it genuinely baffling that the same studio responsible for 2024’s The Brutalist (which secured ten nominations and three wins) walks away with zero this time. I’ve grown accustomed to this kind of frustration — particularly after the Academy snubbed Marianne Jean-Baptiste’s extraordinary performance in Mike Leigh’s Hard Truths, one of the most acclaimed turns of 2024.
I’m also disappointed to see two of my favorite blockbuster franchises — Avatar and Mission: Impossible — receive minimal recognition (none at all, in Mission: Impossible’s case). James Cameron, for all his stature, rarely campaigns aggressively for awards, but it’s still striking to see Fire and Ash excluded from Best Picture after its two predecessors made the cut. Less surprising is the Academy’s continued indifference toward Tom Cruise. Mission: Impossible has historically been relegated to technical categories, though I’ll take some comfort in Cruise receiving an honorary Oscar alongside the introduction of a new category — Best Stunt Design — at the 100th Academy Awards.
Additionally, you’ll notice that my favorite film of 2025, Highest 2 Lowest, is entirely absent. I’m at a loss here — both Denzel Washington and A$AP Rocky deliver nomination-worthy performances, and the score is simply untouchable. Spike Lee remains one of the most influential filmmakers of his generation, yet the Academy has long been hesitant to reward him. While this outcome isn’t surprising, it still stings. It’s unfortunate that this film appears to have slipped so thoroughly beneath the radar.
Lastly, I want to touch on international cinema. Two of the five International Film nominees (The Secret Agent and Sentimental Value) also landed Best Picture nominations, virtually guaranteeing that one of them will take home the award (my money remains on Sentimental Value). Still, many will be disappointed to see Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident confined to International Film and Original Screenplay. The film is extraordinary, and early betting markets anticipated nominations for Best Picture and Best Director. While the outcome is disappointing, I hope these nods encourage a wider audience to seek it out. I’m also thrilled to see Spain’s Sirât recognized for both International Film and Sound. It was barely on my radar before emerging as one of my favorites of the year — a film I continue to think about. It’s unlike anything I’ve seen, transforming a modest premise into a haunting, apocalyptic odyssey.
That’s all I have to say for now — though I’ll be sharing my winner predictions as we approach the ceremony in March.
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